In Iraq, multiple challenges threaten the promise of electoral reform
Electoral reform and early parliamentary elections have been a pressing demand of the youth-led protest movement, which broke out across central and southern Iraq in October 2019 and led to the resignation of then Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi. Ending months of political deadlock, Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi took office in May 2020, pledging that his transitional government would lead the country towards early elections in line with the protesters’ demands. In late July, the new government announced a plan to hold parliamentary elections in June 2021, roughly a year ahead of schedule. Notably, the new electoral law, approved by parliament in December, divides the country into multiple electoral districts. This allows voters to choose individual candidates as opposed to the previous system of voting for party lists, which favoured the factions that have come to dominate Iraqi politics.
The prospect of early elections could represent an opportunity for meaningful reforms to a political system seen as highly corrupt and ineffective by a great majority of Iraqis. An accountable and transparent process, with a high voter turnout, would likely contribute significantly to re-establish public trust in state institutions and the democratic process. However, given a multitude of political, financial and security challenges, there is a significant risk that the whole process will be poorly managed. This scenario would exacerbate Iraq’s political crisis, potentially leading to renewed protests and ethno-sectarian violence.
While many Iraqis welcomed the announcement of the government’s plan to hold early elections, many others fear that holding early elections without achieving significant reforms will not result in a free and transparent vote. Such an outcome would fail to produce any dramatic changes to a system dominated by governing elites. “The gap between what elites think about these electoral changes and public opinion demonstrates once again a wide disparity between what the elites expect and what the Iraqi people think generally,” writes Munqith Dagher, MENA director and a board member of Gallup International. [i]
The announcement received widespread endorsement both domestically and internationally. Notably, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani welcomed the government’s steps to hold early elections. The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) also expressed its readiness to hold early elections if its proposed preconditions are attained. Those preconditions include finalizing both the new elections law, the Supreme Court Law, and the allocation by relevant ministries of funding to the IHEC’s budget. Supervision and technical assistance by the UN and other international organizations are also essential enabling factors.
The new electoral law, officially finalised in late October 2020, divides the number of electoral districts per governorate on the respective number of women quota seats in parliament. It allows voters to choose individual candidates rather than party lists. The key purpose behind the protesters’ demand to amend the electoral law is to prevent the prominent political parties from running with their lists in single electoral districts, whereby they would win the votes cast for their list members.
However, for numerous party leaders, particularly those in the disputed territories, the adoption of multiple electoral districts raises concerns over renewed ethno-sectarian tensions. For instance, the head of Turkmen Front in Kirkuk said that the multiple electoral districts in the governorate would divide the governorate into three districts defined by ethnic differences: Arabic, Kurdish, and Turkmen districts, raising concerns over ethno-sectarian discrimination. [ii]
Preparations for the early elections are compounded by a multitude of enduring challenges, particularly on the political, legal, financial, and security fronts.
Politically, beyond the challenge of convincing the public that voting is worth it, it remains unclear whether all factions are willing to end their term a year earlier. As such, achieving political consensus on the dissolution of parliament stands as a major test for the plan to hold early elections. An agreement reached among party leaders will be needed for a vote to dissolve parliament.
Legally, the Federal Supreme Court needs to achieve a re-balance after its quorum was compressed by the referral of one of its members to retirement and the death of another member. The court has been struggling with parliament’s failure to pass a new Federal Court law due to political dispute between the blocs. Moreover, the rivalry between the Chief Justice and the President of the Federal Supreme Court has hindered progress in appointing new substitutes. [iii]
Financially, multiple political parties have demanded the use of an updated biometric voter identification card for the early elections, but the IHEC may be unable to update those cards without adequate budget and time. Amid a dire fiscal crisis due to the COVID-19 and the sharp drop in global oil prices, financing the elections represents another major challenge for the GoI. The COVID-19 outbreak in February has further worsened the situation as the government diverted much of its resources to contain the epidemic. As a consequence of the global economic impact of the pandemic, the country’s oil revenues collapsed in April 2020 to their lowest level in more than a decade amid the sharp drop in global oil prices. Iraq depends on oil sales for over 90 percent of government revenue. Months of lockdown and movement restrictions imposed by the GoI to contain the outbreak have further exacerbated the economic crisis. [iv]
On the security front, ongoing attacks by Daesh against civilians and security forces, as well as the subversive actions of outlawed Shia militias, represent additional obstacles for the electoral process and could provoke delays. The presence of Shia Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) in Sunni-majority areas amid return of IDPs may ignite sectarian tensions. These dual security challenges put into question the feasibility of holding early elections on the date scheduled by Al-Kadhimi.
In an interview with ARK, an IHEC employee said that the key challenge is that the IHEC itself needs reform to strengthen the body against the influence of political agendas, which have been dominant in the past few years. “Political parties who have armed groups within the PMUs have worrying influence over the IHEC and could question its independence,” said the source, explaining that the factions have previously intervened in the recruitment processes of the IHEC offices at both provincial and HQ levels.
The interviewee believes that the forthcoming elections will be a sensitive process, given the radical changes the electoral law represents for Iraq’s political system. “If relevant bodies fail to effectively manage the process, negative consequences may follow which could potentially deepen Iraq’s political crisis,” they said. They also added that one way to avoid further crisis is to achieve a high turnout that could eliminate, or at least reduce the space for fraud.
Election turnout in Iraq has steadily decreased since 2005, reflecting loss of trust by the public in the government and the political elites. At 44 percent, voter turnout in parliamentary elections of May 12, 2018 was the lowest of all elections conducted since 2005. Electoral reform is thus essential to achieve a higher turnout. Key factors that would contribute to a higher turnout, according to the source, include guarantees from the IHEC that there will be no space for electoral fraud, as well as effective campaigns to persuade the public to participate in the process.
According to the interviewee, “if the highly influential parties, especially those who have armed groups, do not influence the results and refrain from any fraudulent acts, democracy will be moved a step forward in Iraq”. With the new elections law, party leaders will have to choose their nominees according to what people desire in their communities, which may also contribute to a higher turnout.
The forthcoming parliamentary elections, including the systemic reforms introduced by the new election law, could help restore Iraqis’ widespread loss of faith in the government, state institutions and the ruling elite. So far, the PM al-Kadhimi has shown political will to press forward with the process for early elections. However, the current government and relevant Iraqi institutions need significant outside support, including technical and financial assistance, in order to meet these challenges. More broadly, stabilisation and development efforts could also prove key for a successful electoral process and a peaceful aftermath.
[1] “Iraqi early elections may not be a game changer,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 22 October 2020 - https://bit.ly/2IoTmn0
[1] “The Turkmen Front: the multiple electoral districts will divide Kirkuk into three districts in future,” Nina News, 6 September 2020 - https://bit.ly/3no955I
[1] ““The Myth of Early Elections in Iraq,” The Washington Institute for the Near East Policy, 13 August 2020, https://bit.ly/356RZRy
[1] “World Bank Sees Oil Average $44 in 2021,” OilPrices.com, 22 October 2020 - https://bit.ly/363bQ4n