Regular Perception Surveys on Social Tensions throughout Lebanon, Wave X

Now a decade into the Syria conflict, Lebanon continues to host upwards of a million Syrian refugees. Relations between Lebanese host-communities and Syrian refugees have been a persistent source of social tensions. Complicated by a severe downturn in the economy, the recent experience of the COVID-19 pandemic, and paralysis in government institutions, Lebanon faces enormous challenges to social stability. Results from Wave X of the ARK-UNDP Regular Perception Surveys on Social Tensions throughout Lebanon (May/June 2021) provide key insights on the impact of the political and economic crises that have affected Lebanon since late-2019, as well as the lasting impact of the Syrian refugee crisis beginning in 2011. Read the full report published to the Lebanon Crisis Response Information Hub.

The economic downturn, exacerbated by the country's experience of the COVID-19 pandemic, has had a dramatic impact on standards of living nationwide, both for Syrian refugees and vulnerable Lebanese. Three-in-five Lebanese and four-in-five Syrian households now say they are worried about food supplies. These mounting economic pressures have also contributed to increasing social tensions, both in relations between Lebanese host-communities and Syrian refugees and within and between Lebanese groups. Nearly a third of Lebanese (32.2%) now describe relations with Syrian refugees as 'negative' or 'very negative'. While 'competition over lower-skilled jobs' remains the most-cited tension factor in Lebanese-Syrian relations, other economic factors like 'competition for services and utilities' have become more widespread as sources of tension.

With respect to relations between different Lebanese confessional or other groups, the results from Wave X were consistent with a longer-term trend toward worsening Lebanese intra-group relations. While 'political and sectarian conflicts' (55.4%) remain the most-cited source of tensions in intra-Lebanese relations, economic factors have also begun to play a greater role in determining the quality of intra-Lebanese relations, just as they have in determining the quality of host-community and refugee relations. In addition to the 21.8% citing 'economic competition over jobs or resources' as a tension factor in relations between different Lebanese groups in Wave X, 40.8% of Lebanese cited 'inflation or lack of access to cash' as a tension factor.

Lebanese and Syrians are fearful of the removal of government subsidies on food, fuel and medicine. Competition over access to subsidised goods, especially food, has already led to regular fights, for example, in supermarkets. One such fight in Tripoli at a distribution of food rations on the first day of Ramadan resulted in one death on 14 April, concurrent with the period of Wave X fieldwork. An equal fraction of both Lebanese and Syrians (69.8%) said that they supported the current subsidy program, and a majority indicated that they relied on subsidies ‘to maintain their current quality of life’. Only 1.4% of Lebanese said that they did not rely on food subsidies at all, 3.0% that they did not rely on fuel subsides, and 5.0% that they did not rely on medical subsidies. Without alternative means of social support in place for Lebanon's most vulnerable, the removal of additional subsidies on essential goods combined with rising prices and persistent devaluation in the lira will continue to push more Lebanese into poverty and exacerbate existing social tensions. 

Economic anxieties have also contributed to greater concerns for physical security, as well as heightened anxieties related to the threat of crime and violence. In Wave X, the per cent stating they felt 'unsafe' or 'very unsafe' during the day increased from 9.5% in Wave IX to 12.6%, and the per cent stating they felt 'unsafe' or 'very unsafe' during the night increased from 29.7% to 44.2%. Thus, perceptions of safety and security, on average, worsened even as the actual incidence of or exposure to armed violence declined over the same period, from 15.8% in Wave IX to 10.0% in Wave X. Non-violent crime, including theft or robbery, however, has continued to climb, and this is likely explained by desperation. Nine per cent (9.1%) of Lebanese households in Wave X reported an incident of theft or robbery at the household level.

Lebanon’s experience of the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated Lebanese suffering from the current social and political crises. The pandemic has had a significant impact on the economy in Lebanon. Curfews, social distancing measures, lockdowns and other emergency measures have affected the ways that many businesses operate and contributed to rising unemployment and lower productivity in Lebanon. A majority of households reported at least one negative change in employment attributed to deterioration in the economy or the impact of lockdowns, with the most common reports including at least one householder 'losing a job or stopping work without pay' (16.8%), 'a reduction in salary' (18.4%) or 'a reduction in hours' (47.8%).

The public is extremely critical of the performance of the current Government (Cabinet), which has been operating in a caretaker capacity since August 2020, following the explosion in the Port of Beirut. In Wave X, 69.8% of Lebanese said that the government had ‘worsened life a lot, and an additional 10.9% said that the government had ‘worsened life somewhat for people in Lebanon’. Only 3.5% of Lebanese had even a somewhat favourable perception of the government. The economic and political situation, and thus also the social stability landscape, in the months to come is most likely to be determined by the success or failure of efforts underway to form a new government with sufficient political backing to implement necessary reforms.